15981 - Senior Modelling and Forecasting Analyst - 15981 - Ministry of Justice

Descriptions & requirements

Job description

Job title: Senior Modelling and Forecasting Analyst

Directorate: Strategy and Analysis

Workstream: Data, Analysis and Insight

About us

HM Courts & Tribunals Service (HMCTS) is responsible for the administration of criminal, civil and family courts and tribunals in England and Wales. Our roles support our service users and colleagues, where people and businesses access potentially life-changing justice.  We’re looking for individuals who are committed to public service and want to make a difference in people’s lives in delivering justice. If you’re interested in developing a career with a real purpose, please apply.

About the role

In 2016, HMCTS set out an ambitious vision to modernise and enhance our justice system so that it works even better for everyone, from judges and legal professionals to witnesses, litigants, and vulnerable victims of crime. This work aims to ensure fair and effective access to justice for all and to strengthen the UK’s position within an increasingly competitive international legal market.
To support this transformation, HMCTS published its Data Strategy in 2021, outlining its ambitions to become a truly data‑driven organisation.

The Data, Analysis and Insight team (DAI) plays a central role in helping HMCTS achieve this. We are a team of around 90 analysts, data engineers, and data access specialists who provide HMCTS and the Judiciary with timely, accurate, and accessible management information and analysis that supports both strategic and operational decision‑making.

This is an exciting time to join the team. New ways of delivering courts and tribunal services, supported by modern operational technology, have created richer and more varied data sources. The Permanent Secretary and Ministers have made it a priority to use data to build a high‑performance culture across the organisation.

The Modelling & Forecasting Team provides HMCTS with a centre of expertise around modelling and forecasting, supporting strategic planning, performance modelling, financial decision making, implementation of new policies and judicial resourcing. We provide robust analytical modelling through working with a wide range of stakeholders, addressing uncertainties and limitations. We promote best practices of modelling governance and analytical quality assurance.

The team is increasingly involved with analysis to support high profile policy changes that will impact HMCTS, such as understanding the impact of new housing-related policies (including Renters Rights) on demand to the Property Tribunal and considering potential interventions being explored with the Home Office to address asylum backlogs across the immigration system. We are reviewing the timeliness of processes in the Criminal Justice system and will be modelling the operational impacts of any reforms proposed by the Independent Review of Criminal Courts.

Your role as the Modelling and Forecasting Analyst encompasses several key aspects (but not limited to):

Working with a wide range of stakeholders, including Finance, Operations and Policy colleagues, other analysts in DAI and the wider MoJ, members of the Judiciary, and other Government Departments.
Ensuring timely delivery of modelling and forecasting outputs, supporting HMCTS performance monitoring and financial planning exercises.
Keeping in touch with business insights and developments, ensuring we apply the appropriate modelling techniques and identify any improvements when needed and circumstances are changing.
Ensuring our models align with departmental analytical quality assurance standards and producing necessary documentation.

Who are we looking for? (Person Specification)

Eligibility for the role:

Analysts currently members of one of the following government analytical professions: GSS/GORS/GES/GSR
Candidates that are not members of a profession but can demonstrate similar experience at the appropriate level are eligible to join. The criteria to satisfy the eligibility rules are:

You possess a numerate degree or a degree that has an analytical, statistical or research element, with a 2:2 or above, or a higher degree (e.g. MSc, PhD).
Alternatively, you have significant experience (usually a minimum of two-years’ work experience) evidencing use of data and/or analytical skills (outside a part-completed Civil Service degree apprenticeship).

For a successful non analytical profession member, badging opportunities will be available once in post for those who wish to apply.

Further information can be found on: Government Analysis Function – The Government Analysis Function is a network for all civil servants working in government analysis. (civilservice.gov.uk)

The ideal candidate for this position should also demonstrate:

Essential Skills

Analytical Modelling:

Develop the appropriate analytical/modelling methodology to solve a given modelling problem depending on the available data (e.g. forecasting techniques, simulation modelling, multivariate analysis etc.).
Identify data limitations and make modelling assumptions needed to fill in any data gaps.
Refresh or adjust models to account for new contexts or emerging data sources.
Produce well-written documentation and ensure compliance with analytical quality assurance standards.
Experience with at least one specialist analytical software or programming language (e.g. R, SQL, Python etc.)
Knowledge of version control (using Git and GitHub).

Stakeholder engagement: Strong verbal and written communication skills, ability to convey complex ideas in a clear, accessible, and engaging way for diverse audiences.

Interpersonal skills: Strong interpersonal skills and the ability to build and maintain strong working relationships with business partners and stakeholders.

Workload management: Ability to manage own workload and customer expectations, prioritise work based on customer needs and wider departmental objectives and deliver required outputs within agreed timescales.

Embedding new best practices: Ability to find and share best practices (analytical modelling, training material, collaborating etc) to support the development of the team.

How to apply

Application Stage

Please submit:

An anonymised CV. Please ensure your CV is uploaded in a simple format to prevent any formatting issues when it's downloaded or reviewed.

Your CV should:

Be succinct and clear.
Be factually accurate – You must ensure that any evidence submitted as part of your application, is truthful and factually accurate. Please note that plagiarism can include presenting the ideas and experiences of others, or generated by artificial intelligence, as your own.
Include your qualifications, highlighting any modules or accreditation relevant to the role.
Include your relevant experience, providing dates.
Provide detail – we are interested in how your knowledge, skills, and experience demonstrate the capabilities we are looking for in this role.

· Statement of suitability demonstrating how you meet the essential criteria (up to 750 words).

You must ensure that any evidence submitted as part of your application are truthful and factually accurate. Please note that plagiarism can include presenting the ideas and experiences of others, or generated by artificial intelligence, as your own.

· Technical - to confirm your eligibility for the role as outlined above (up to 250 words).

Interview Stage

If successful at sift, you will be invited to attend a remote interview, via Microsoft teams. During your interview, you will be assessed against the following Civil Service Success Profiles which will include:

A presentation against to assess your technical skills based on your analytical profession , the presentation brief will be sent to you in advance.
One technical question based on professional competencies/experience.

o For candidates who are not a member of one of the government analytical professions and are entering via the qualifications route, you will also be requested to provide proof that you possess a numerate degree or a degree that has an analytical, statistical or research element, with a 2:2 or above, or a higher degree (e.g. MSc, PhD).

· Questions in relation to the following Civil Service behaviours;

o Delivering at pace

o Working Together

o Changing and improving

Further details

Allowance

This post is eligible for a specialist pay allowance depending on location, experience and professional membership.

Working pattern

Due to the nature of the role, the minimum working hours is 30 hours per week.

Travel requirements

There will be a requirement to travel occasionally to any HMCTS site in line with business needs.

Opportunities for development

HMCTS is committed to staff development and offers an extensive range of training and development opportunities. You will have access to a wide range of professional analytical development, such as online training, taught courses, one-to-one coaching and a large peer-support network.

About our benefits

We reward our people for their hard work and commitment. We have a number of family friendly and flexible working polices that will help you achieve a healthy work-life balance. In addition, we offer a range of employee benefits which include generous annual leave, a highly competitive contributory pension scheme, childcare benefits, season ticket and bicycle loans.

Proud to Serve. Proud to keep justice going.

Additional Information

Working Arrangements & Further Information

The MoJ offers Hybrid Working arrangements where business need allows. This is an informal, non-contractual form of flexible working that blends working from your base location, different MoJ sites and / or from home (please be aware that this role can only be worked in the UK and not overseas). All employees will be expected to spend a minimum of 60% of their working time in an office, subject to local estate capacity.

Some roles will not be suitable for Hybrid Working. Similarly, Hybrid Working will not suit everyone’s circumstances. Arrangements will be discussed and agreed with the successful candidate(s) and subject to regular review.

For nationally advertised roles: All successful candidates will be appointed to the nearest viable office nearest to their home postcode and on its respective pay scale. This will be at either a HQ building (subject to desk allocation, a Justice Collaboration Centre (JCC) or a Justice Satellite Office (JSO) – See Map. All employees will be expected to spend a minimum of 60% of their working time in an office, subject to local estate capacity).

For current MoJ employees, your base location will need to be changed to the nearest viable office (to your home postcode), either at a HQ building, JCC or JSO within the National Office Network and moved its location’s respective pay scale (any legacy arrangements/locations will need to be amended).

Some of MoJ’s terms and conditions of service are changing as part of Civil Service reform. The changes will apply to staff joining MoJ who are new to the Civil Service. Staff joining MoJ from other civil service employers will transfer onto the new MoJ terms if they are already on 'modernised' terms in their current post or onto 'unmodernised' MoJ terms if they are on 'unmodernised' terms at their current post. Details will be available if an offer is made.

MoJ candidates who are on a specialist grade, will be able to retain their grade on lateral transfer.

All candidates who are currently in receipt of Mark Time / Pay Protection should ensure they are familiar with the new policy on permanent and temporary promotion which can be found on the employee intranet.

Flexible working hours

The Ministry of Justice offers a flexible working system in many offices. Standard full time working hours are 37 hours per week. MoJ welcomes part-time, flexible and job-sharing working patterns, where they meet the demands of the role and business needs. All applications for part-time, flexible and job-sharing working patterns will be considered in accordance with the MoJ’s Flexible Working policy.

Benefits

The MoJ offers a range of benefits:

Annual Leave

Annual leave is 25 days on appointment and will increase to 30 days after five years’ service.

There is also a scheme to allow qualifying staff to buy or sell up to three days leave each year. Additional paid time off for public holidays and 1 privilege day. Leave for part-time and job share posts will be calculated on a pro-rata basis.

Pension

The Civil Service offers a choice of pension schemes, giving you the flexibility to choose the pension that suits you best.

Training

The Ministry of Justice is committed to staff development and offers an extensive range of training and development opportunities.

Networks

The opportunity to join employee-run networks that have been established to provide advice and support and to enable the views of employees from minority groups to be expressed direct to senior management. There are currently networks for employees of minority ethnic origin, employees with disabilities, employees with caring responsibilities, women employees, and lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender employees.

Eligibility

Staff on fixed term appointments must have been recruited through fair and open competition.

Vacancies advertised “cross-government” are only open to all Civil Service employees and employees of accredited non-departmental public bodies (NDPBs) who were appointed on merit following a fair and open competition; or were appointed to a permanent post through an exception in the Civil Service Commissioners' rules.

Support

A range of ‘Family Friendly’ policies such as opportunities to work reduced hours or job share.
Access to flexible benefits such as voluntary benefits, retail vouchers and discounts on a range of goods and services.
For moves to or from another employer or moves across the Civil Service this can have implications on your eligibility to carry on claiming childcare vouchers. You may however be eligible for alternative government childcare support schemes, including Tax Free Childcare. More information can be found on www.www.GOV.UK or Childcare Choices. You can determine your eligibility at https://www.childcarechoices.gov.uk/.
Paid paternity, adoption and maternity leave.
Free annual sight tests for employees who use computer screens.

Working for the Civil Service

The Civil Service Code sets out the standards of behaviour expected of civil servants.

We recruit by merit on the basis of fair and open competition, as outlined in the Civil Service Commission's recruitment principles. Should you feel that the recruitment process has breached the recruitment principles you are able to raise a formal complaint in the following order

To Transformative Business Services (0345 241 5359 (Monday to Friday 8am - 6pm) or e mail moj-recruitment-vetting-enquiries@resourcing.soprasteria.co.uk);
To Ministry of Justice Resourcing team (resourcing-management-office@justice.gov.uk);
To the Civil Service Commission (details available here)

As a Disability Confident employer, MoJ are committed to providing everyone with the opportunity to demonstrate their skills, talent and abilities, by making adjustments throughout all elements of the recruitment process and in the workplace. MoJ are able to offer an interview to disabled candidates who meet the minimum selection criteria, except in a limited number of campaigns.

You will be able to request reasonable adjustments to the recruitment process within the application form. If you need additional help completing the application form, please contact the TBS Recruitment Enquiries Team.

For more information on applying for a role as a candidate with a disability or long-term condition, please watch our animated videos.

Diversity & Inclusion

The Civil Service is committed to attract, retain and invest in talent wherever it is found. To learn more please see the Civil Service People Plan and the Civil Service Diversity and Inclusion Strategy.

Redeployment Interview Scheme

Civil Service departments are expected to explore redeployment opportunities before making an individual redundant. The MoJ is committed, as part of the Redeployment Interview Scheme, to providing opportunities to those who are 'at risk of redundancy'.

MoJ is able to offer an interview to eligible candidates who meet the minimum selection criteria, except in a limited number of campaigns. Candidates will not be eligible for the Redeployment Interview Scheme if they are applying on promotion.

Civil Service Nationality Rules

This job is broadly open to the following groups:

UK nationals
nationals of the Republic of Ireland
nationals of Commonwealth countries who have the right to work in the UK
nationals of the EU, Switzerland, Norway, Iceland or Liechtenstein and family members of those nationalities with settled or pre-settled status under the European Union Settlement Scheme (EUSS) (opens in a new window) https://www.gov.uk/settled-status-eu-citizens-families
nationals of the EU, Switzerland, Norway, Iceland or Liechtenstein and family members of those nationalities who have made a valid application for settled or pre-settled status under the European Union Settlement Scheme (EUSS)
individuals with limited leave to remain or indefinite leave to remain who were eligible to apply for EUSS on or before 31 December 2020
Turkish nationals, and certain family members of Turkish nationals, who have accrued the right to work in the Civil Service

Further information on nationality requirements (opens in a new window) https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/nationality-rules

Reserve list

A reserve list may be held for up to 12 months from which further appointments may be made for the same or similar roles.

Contact Information

MoJ:

If you require any assistance please call 0345 241 5359 (Monday to Friday 8am - 6pm) or e mail moj-recruitment-vetting-enquiries@resourcing.soprasteria.co.uk

Please quote the job reference 15981

HMPPS

If you require any assistance please call 0345 241 5358 (Monday to Friday 8am - 6pm) or e mail moj-recruitment-vetting-enquiries@resourcing.soprasteria.co.uk

Please quote the job reference

Allowance

This post is eligible for a specialist pay allowance depending on location, experience and professional membership.

Application form stage assessments

Experience

We will assess your experience for this role via the following methods

CV or Work History, Statement of Suitability

Statement of Suitability

Guidance for the Statement of Suitability

Your Statement of Suitability should be no more than 750 words and should give us real life examples of how your skills and experience match those needed for this role. Consider addressing particular points in the person specification requirements and key responsibilities. We recommend following the STAR format.

You must ensure that any evidence submitted as part of your application are truthful and factually accurate. Please note that plagiarism can include presenting the ideas and experiences of others, or generated by artificial intelligence, as your own.

Evidence of Experience

CV or Work History, Statement of Suitability

Technical

Technical Questions Application Form Question Word Limit

250

To be eligible to apply for this role, you must meet one of the following criteria:
- Analysts currently members of one of the following government analytical professions: GSS/GORS/GES/GSR

Candidates that are not members of a profession but can demonstrate similar experience at the appropriate level are eligible to join. The criteria to satisfy the eligibility rules are:
- You possess a numerate degree or a degree that has an analytical, statistical or research element, with a 2:2 or above, or a higher degree (e.g. MSc, PhD).
- Alternatively, you have significant experience (usually a minimum of two-years’ work experience) evidencing use of data and/or analytical skills (outside a part-completed Civil Service degree apprenticeship).

Please confirm how you meet the eligibility requirements.

Ministry of Justice

15981 - Senior Modelling and Forecasting Analyst

General Information

Descriptions & requirements

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Application form stage assessments

Interview stage assessments

Other Assessments