Job title: Senior Modelling and Forecasting Analyst

Directorate: Strategy and Analysis

Workstream: Data, Analysis and Insight 

About us

HM Courts & Tribunals Service (HMCTS) is responsible for the administration of criminal, civil and family courts and tribunals in England and Wales. Our roles support our service users and colleagues, where people and businesses access potentially life-changing justice.  We’re looking for individuals who are committed to public service and want to make a difference in people’s lives in delivering justice. If you’re interested in developing a career with a real purpose, please apply.

About the role

In 2016, HMCTS set out an ambitious vision to modernise and enhance our justice system so that it works even better for everyone, from judges and legal professionals to witnesses, litigants, and vulnerable victims of crime. This work aims to ensure fair and effective access to justice for all and to strengthen the UK’s position within an increasingly competitive international legal market.
To support this transformation, HMCTS published its Data Strategy in 2021, outlining its ambitions to become a truly data‑driven organisation.

The Data, Analysis and Insight team (DAI) plays a central role in helping HMCTS achieve this. We are a team of around 90 analysts, data engineers, and data access specialists who provide HMCTS and the Judiciary with timely, accurate, and accessible management information and analysis that supports both strategic and operational decision‑making.

This is an exciting time to join the team. New ways of delivering courts and tribunal services, supported by modern operational technology, have created richer and more varied data sources. The Permanent Secretary and Ministers have made it a priority to use data to build a high‑performance culture across the organisation.

The Modelling & Forecasting Team provides HMCTS with a centre of expertise around modelling and forecasting, supporting strategic planning, performance modelling, financial decision making, implementation of new policies and judicial resourcing. We provide robust analytical modelling through working with a wide range of stakeholders, addressing uncertainties and limitations. We promote best practices of modelling governance and analytical quality assurance.

The team is increasingly involved with analysis to support high profile policy changes that will impact HMCTS, such as understanding the impact of new housing-related policies (including Renters Rights) on demand to the Property Tribunal and considering potential interventions being explored with the Home Office to address asylum backlogs across the immigration system. We are reviewing the timeliness of processes in the Criminal Justice system and will be modelling the operational impacts of any reforms proposed by the Independent Review of Criminal Courts.

Your role as the Modelling and Forecasting Analyst encompasses several key aspects (but not limited to):

• Working with a wide range of stakeholders, including Finance, Operations and Policy colleagues, other analysts in DAI and the wider MoJ, members of the Judiciary, and other Government Departments.

• Ensuring timely delivery of modelling and forecasting outputs, supporting HMCTS performance monitoring and financial planning exercises.

• Keeping in touch with business insights and developments, ensuring we apply the appropriate modelling techniques and identify any improvements when needed and circumstances are changing.

• Ensuring our models align with departmental analytical quality assurance standards and producing necessary documentation.

Who are we looking for? (Person Specification)

Eligibility for the role:

• Analysts currently members of one of the following government analytical professions: GSS/GORS/GES/GSR

• Candidates that are not members of a profession but can demonstrate similar experience at the appropriate level are eligible to join. The criteria to satisfy the eligibility rules are:

  • You possess a numerate degree or a degree that has an analytical, statistical or research element, with a 2:2 or above, or a higher degree (e.g. MSc, PhD).

  • Alternatively, you have significant experience (usually a minimum of two-years’ work experience) evidencing use of data and/or analytical skills (outside a part-completed Civil Service degree apprenticeship).

For a successful non analytical profession member, badging opportunities will be available once in post for those who wish to apply.

Further information can be found on: Government Analysis Function - The Government Analysis Function is a network for all civil servants working in government analysis. (civilservice.gov.uk)

The ideal candidate for this position should also demonstrate:

Essential Skills

• Analytical Modelling: 

• Develop the appropriate analytical/modelling methodology to solve a given modelling problem depending on the available data (e.g. forecasting techniques, simulation modelling, multivariate analysis etc.).

• Identify data limitations and make modelling assumptions needed to fill in any data gaps.

• Refresh or adjust models to account for new contexts or emerging data sources.

• Produce well-written documentation and ensure compliance with analytical quality assurance standards.

• Experience with at least one specialist analytical software or programming language (e.g. R, SQL, Python etc.)

• Knowledge of version control (using Git and GitHub).

• Stakeholder engagement:  Strong verbal and written communication skills, ability to convey complex ideas in a clear, accessible, and engaging way for diverse audiences.

• Interpersonal skills: Strong interpersonal skills and the ability to build and maintain strong working relationships with business partners and stakeholders.
  
  

• Workload management: Ability to manage own workload and customer expectations, prioritise work based on customer needs and wider departmental objectives and deliver required outputs within agreed timescales.

• Embedding new best practices: Ability to find and share best practices (analytical modelling, training material, collaborating etc) to support the development of the team. 

How to apply

Application Stage

Please submit:

• An anonymised CV. Please ensure your CV is uploaded in a simple format to prevent any formatting issues when it's downloaded or reviewed. 

Your CV should: 

• Be succinct and clear.

• Be factually accurate - You must ensure that any evidence submitted as part of your application, is truthful and factually accurate. Please note that plagiarism can include presenting the ideas and experiences of others, or generated by artificial intelligence, as your own. 

• Include your qualifications, highlighting any modules or accreditation relevant to the role.

• Include your relevant experience, providing dates. 

• Provide detail - we are interested in how your knowledge, skills, and experience demonstrate the capabilities we are looking for in this role.

• Statement of suitability demonstrating how you meet the essential criteria (up to 750 words).

Your Statement of Suitability should be no more than 750 words and should give us real life examples of how your skills and experience match those needed for this role. Consider addressing particular points in the person specification requirements and key responsibilities. We recommend following the STAR format. 

You must ensure that any evidence submitted as part of your application are truthful and factually accurate. Please note that plagiarism can include presenting the ideas and experiences of others, or generated by artificial intelligence, as your own.

• Technical - to confirm your eligibility for the role as outlined above (up to 250 words).

Interview Stage

If successful at sift, you will be invited to attend a remote interview, via Microsoft teams. During your interview, you will be assessed against the following Civil Service Success Profiles which will include:

• A presentation against to assess your technical skills based on your analytical profession , the presentation brief will be sent to you in advance.

• One technical question based on professional competencies/experience.

  • For candidates who are not a member of one of the government analytical professions and are entering via the qualifications route, you will also be requested to provide proof that you possess a numerate degree or a degree that has an analytical, statistical or research element, with a 2:2 or above, or a higher degree (e.g. MSc, PhD).

• Questions in relation to the following Civil Service behaviours;

  • Delivering at pace

  • Working Together

  • Changing and improving

Further details

Allowance

This post is eligible for a specialist pay allowance depending on location, experience and professional membership.

Working pattern

Due to the nature of the role, the minimum working hours is 30 hours per week.

Travel requirements

There will be a requirement to travel occasionally to any HMCTS site in line with business needs.

Opportunities for development

HMCTS is committed to staff development and offers an extensive range of training and development opportunities. You will have access to a wide range of professional analytical development, such as online training, taught courses, one-to-one coaching and a large peer-support network.

About our benefits

We reward our people for their hard work and commitment. We have a number of family friendly and flexible working polices that will help you achieve a healthy work-life balance. In addition, we offer a range of employee benefits which include generous annual leave, a highly competitive contributory pension scheme, childcare benefits, season ticket and bicycle loans.

Proud to Serve. Proud to keep justice going.