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Modelling and Forecasting Lead Analyst – 52137
£50,427 – £63,500
Multiple Locations


We encourage applications from people from all backgrounds and aim to have a workforce that represents the wider society that we serve. We pride ourselves on being an employer of choice. We champion diversity, inclusion and wellbeing and aim to create a workplace where everyone feels valued and a sense of belonging. To find out more about how we do this visit:


Her Majesty’s Court and Tribunals Service (HMCTS) is an agency of the Ministry of Justice (MoJ) and provides the supporting administration for the judiciary across England and Wales. It delivers services to the public directly in court and tribunal buildings, remotely via business centres and, increasingly, via the internet. 

HMCTS has embarked on a challenging, modernisation programme with the vision to modernise and upgrade our justice system so that it works even better for everyone, from judges and legal professionals, to witnesses, litigants, and the vulnerable victims of crime. This will help consolidate the UK’s position at the forefront of an increasingly competitive international legal market as well as ensuring access to justice for all. This is an exciting time to join the organisation and be part of a programme making a real difference.

For more information about our digital transformation, watch the Justice Matters video to see the benefits this £1bn investment is delivering to our customers: 

The Finance, Governance and Performance (FGP) directorate provides a pivotal role in supporting senior leaders across the business with reporting, analysis and insights. Our work supports the organisation’s overall strategy and empowers senior leaders to make strategic, data driven business decisions. 

Within FGP, the Analysis and Performance team plays a key role in making HMCTS a data driven organization. We provide HMCTS and the Judiciary with timely, accurate and accessible operational management information and analysis that underpins strategic and operational decisions and Reform activities. To support this, we are currently investing in a cloud-based strategic data platform to transform the ways in which we work with data and enable us to add more value than ever to the organisation and the public. 

The Role

This is a key leadership post in the joint Modelling, Forecasting and Data Science team which provides a centre of expertise in these growing and high-profile areas.

The team are responsible for the development of an integrated and consistent approach to modelling and forecasting which supports the HMCTS response to Covid 19 impacts and you will therefore work closely with the colleagues leading Crime, Civil, Family and Tribunal recovery to develop analysis and modelling to inform recovery planning and the resources required to manage this.  There is ongoing Ministerial interest in progress towards recovery.

In terms of data science team this is a growing area responsible for delivering priority projects making full use of the granular data available to HMCTS analysts. We provide a centre of expertise for the use of modern analytical software (R, Python) and data science methodology (statistical modelling, machine learning). We also provide guidance and mentoring amongst the wider Analysis and Performance unit for building and maintaining reproducible analytical pipelines, automation, and version control (using GitHub).

The two parts of the team work closely together, and we are migrating may of our existing models into R. Many of the key data science projects are focused on improving our understanding of the volume and nature of outstanding cases in the Crown court. This involves feature engineering and exploratory data analysis of our structured data to better understand how close to completion cases are and machine learning (in R and Stan) to predict court resource requirements.

This role span both areas and will be responsible for putting these products into production, developing predictive accuracy, and identifying the potential to expand these models and products to wider HMCTS jurisdictions. The post holder will be encouraged to identify new opportunities where data science skills/techniques could be used to improve business decision making, which will be factored in to identifying future priority projects.

The post holder will also get involved with supporting regular business planning as well as working alongside the analysts supporting the HMCTS Reform programme and wider Analysis and Performance division. As part of our wider role, there will also be opportunities to promote modelling governance and Quality Assurance across HMCTS, as well as developing new and innovative approaches to modelling, working alongside our data science colleagues.

These roles require strong leadership, excellent analytical skills, and confident communication of analytical findings. We are looking for individuals who are inquisitive and keen to explore our data and to adopt new technology and automation to make our work more efficient and flexible. This is a major priority for the Modelling and Forecasting team, working alongside our colleagues in the data science team.

The team works in a flexible way and a successful candidate will:

  • Set up and lead a team with diverse skills in modelling, data analysis and insight to develop innovative data tools, models and analysis to meet business requirements.
  • You will investigate how cases are progressing and provide analysis and support both national and regional recovery modelling and plans. This will draw on your understanding of principles of demand and capacity analysis.
  • Use advanced interrogation techniques to interpret data from variety of MoJ, HMCTS and external sources and construct models that are future proof and adapt to changing requirements. 
  • Be responsible for our supply and demand model for judicial capacity, built in R and using a linear programming approach. You will lead ongoing development of this model and build our support offer around it.
  • Proactively engage with stakeholders, business partners and operational teams to elicit requirements for, and identify opportunities where analysis and modelling can addvalue to recovery and other planning.  You will contribute to the wider team’s provision of data in response to high-priority tasks.
  • Lead on the analysis of business processes through data to understand performance issues, provide insightful recommendations for solutions that will drive improvement; working closely with jurisdictional experts.
  • Contribute to the development of data driven solutions using modern tools and platforms which lead to delivering better quality services and products.
  • Work closely with MoJ colleagues looking at whole system issues to support their understanding of HMCTS data and their analysis.
  • Represent Analysis and Performance at relevant Jurisdictional meetings and in the wider business in a professional manner which builds cross functional relationships and strengthens the perception of A&P as an essential and trusted partner.  

Key skills and experience:

  • A strategic thinker who is with the knowledge and experience to engage proactively and confidently with stakeholders, understanding their key requirements and priorities.
  • Knowledge and practical application of a broad range of forecasting and modelling approaches or quantitative analytical techniques. 
  • Knowledge of R Studio or Python would be an advantage
  • Understanding of key principles for predictive modelling for structured supervised learning problems (e.g. classification/regression, model evaluation, uncertainty quantification).
  • Excellent interpersonal skills and ability to build and maintain strong working relationships with business partners, stakeholders and fellow analysts. 
  • Excellent influencing skills, with the ability to take a complex ideas, concepts and data sets and communicate the key messages clearly in writing and verbally to a variety of audiences. 
  • Strong ability to work in a culture of rapid change and uncertainty. 
  • Strong ability to identify areas of improvement and create innovative approaches to delivering better quality services and products. 
  • Adaptable and willing to review role and priorities with senior management team to meet the current and future needs of the organisation. 
  • Experience of leading diverse teams to deliver change and innovation or a high-quality service. 
  • Strong organisational skills with the ability to plan and prioritise your own and your team’s workload when faced with competing priorities. 
  • Ability to work confidently with a diverse group of stakeholders and challenge established business processes and working practices. 
  • Membership of one of the Government Analytical professions

The successful candidate must already be or are eligible to be a member of the Government Analytical Group: Government Statistical Service (GSS), Government Economical Service (GES), Government Social Research (GSR) or Government Operational Research Service (GORS) professions.  Candidates’ technical and analytical skills will be assessed on the above criteria and these professions’ analytical requirements. 

Application process

You’ll need to submit an anonymised CV and Statement of Suitability as part of your application. You will not be considered if you do not provide both.

Your CV should be no more than 2 pages long and should show us your work history and previous experience. It should be well structured, succinct and written in clear language. Your CV must be anonymised and should state which government analytical profession(s) you are a member of (GORS/GSS/GSR/GES). Avoid just listing technology keywords; we are interested in how you have used different tools to solve problems.

Your Statement of Suitability should be no more than 750 words and should give us examples of how your skills and experience match those needed for this role. Consider giving an example for each bullet point, in the skills requirements ‘Who you are’ section and use work you have completed to demonstrate how you meet each one.

All these requirements are important for the job, however we do not expect candidates to be expert in all of them. Just give as much evidence as you can for each and make sure you cover ‘how’ you demonstrated the requirements and the impact of your work, as well as ‘what’ you did.

If you are interested in applying but are not sure you have all the skills listed, please do apply and give us the opportunity to consider you as a candidate.

For each of the following Success Profiles behaviours, include a 250-word statement of evidence on how your skills, knowledge and experience meet the behaviours:

  • Leadership
  • Managing a Quality Service
  • Delivering at Pace
  • Seeing the Bigger Picture

Further information on Success Profiles and required standards for this post can be found at:

Please also note that interviews will be conducted via video conference and are likely to take place in February 22.

HMCTS recognises the positive value of diversity, promotes equality and challenges discrimination. We welcome and encourage job applications from people of all backgrounds. We would particularly welcome applications from disabled and Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic (BAME) candidates as BAME and disabled people are currently under-represented throughout HMCTS.

Additional Information

Working Arrangements & Further Information

The MoJ offers Hybrid Working arrangements where business need allows. This is an informal, non-contractual form of flexible working that blends working from your base location, different MoJ sites and / or from home (please be aware that this role can only be worked in the UK and not overseas). Some roles will not be suitable for Hybrid Working. Similarly, Hybrid Working will not suit everyone’s circumstances. Arrangements will be discussed and agreed with the successful candidate(s) and subject to regular review.

For nationally advertised roles, the successful candidate(s) will be appointed to a MoJ office location, which may include their nearest Justice Collaboration Centre or Justice Satellite Office. This will be discussed and agreed on the completion of pre-employment checks.

Some of MoJ’s terms and conditions of service are changing as part of Civil Service reform. The changes will apply to staff joining MoJ who are new to the Civil Service. Staff joining MoJ from other civil service employers will transfer onto the new MoJ terms if they are already on ‘modernised’ terms in their current post or onto ‘unmodernised’ MoJ terms if they are on ‘unmodernised’ terms at their current post. Details will be available if an offer is made.

Flexible working hours

The Ministry of Justice offers a flexible working system in many offices.


The MoJ offers a range of benefits:

Annual Leave

Annual leave is 25 days on appointment and will increase to 30 days after five years’ service.

There is also a scheme to allow qualifying staff to buy or sell up to three days leave each year. Additional paid time off for public holidays and 1 privilege day. Leave for part-time and job share posts will be calculated on a pro-rata basis.


The Civil Service offers a choice of pension schemes, giving you the flexibility to choose the pension that suits you best.


The Ministry of Justice is committed to staff development and offers an extensive range of training and development opportunities.


The opportunity to join employee-run networks that have been established to provide advice and support and to enable the views of employees from minority groups to be expressed direct to senior management. There are currently networks for employees of minority ethnic origin, employees with disabilities, employees with caring responsibilities, women employees, and lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender employees.


  • A range of ‘Family Friendly’ policies such as opportunities to work reduced hours or job share.
  • Access to flexible benefits such as voluntary benefits, retail vouchers and discounts on a range of goods and services.
  • For moves to or from another employer or moves across the Civil Service this can have implications on your eligibility to carry on claiming childcare vouchers. You may however be eligible for alternative government childcare support schemes, including Tax Free Childcare. More information can be found on UKor Childcare Choices. You can determine your eligibility at
  • Paid paternity, adoption and maternity leave.
  • Free annual sight tests for employees who use computer screens.

Working for the Civil Service

The Civil Service Code sets out the standards of behaviour expected of civil servants.

We recruit by merit on the basis of fair and open competition, as outlined in the Civil Service Commission’s recruitment principles. Should you feel that the recruitment process has breached the recruitment principles you are able to raise a formal complaint in the following order

The Civil Service embraces diversity and promotes equal opportunities. As a Disability Confident employer, MoJ are committed to providing everyone with the opportunity to demonstrate their skills, talent and abilities, by making adjustments throughout all elements of the recruitment process and in the workplace. MoJ are able to offer an interview to disabled candidates who meet the minimum selection criteria, except in a limited number of campaigns.

You will be able to request reasonable adjustments to the recruitment process within the application form. If you need additional help completing the application form, please contact the SSCL Recruitment Enquiries Team.

We encourage applications from people from all backgrounds and aim to have a workforce that represents the wider society that we serve. We pride ourselves on being an employer of choice. We champion diversity, inclusion and wellbeing and aim to create a workplace where everyone feels valued and a sense of belonging. To find out more about how we do this visit: